Fire AggroTier 2

at Yolo Grand Archive Store Championship

decks

7 (21.9% of field)

matches (non-mirror)

30 11-17-2

overall winrate

40.0%

ELO-adjusted winrate

42.1% avg ELO -2.9 per match

expected value

43.6% share-weighted (raw)

EV (ELO-adj)

44.7% share-weighted (skill-controlled)

Pilot Skill · average

mean ELO 1282 · median 1263 · range 1175–1461 (7 pilots with an ELO rating)

1152 Q1 1250 Q3 1419 1532

14% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 43% in the bottom.

Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent	Their share	Matches	W-L-D	Raw WR	Shrunk WR	Adj WR	ELO Δ/match
Wind Seiryuu	12.5%	5	1-4-0	20.0%	33.3%	37.1%	-7.4
Fire Crux Lorraine	9.4%	3	0-3-0	0.0%	28.6%	35.9%	-10.6
Wind Shadowstrike	9.4%	4	1-2-1	37.5%	43.8%	39.5%	-6.7
Wind Razorgale	6.2%	4	3-1-0	75.0%	62.5%	61.6%	+7.5
Fire Firebloom Burn	3.1%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	60.2%	+16.3
Fire Luxem Assassin	3.1%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Suited	3.1%	3	2-1-0	66.7%	57.1%	51.8%	+1.3
Fire Umbra Guardian	3.1%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	41.0%	-14.4
Fire Umbra Ranger	3.1%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	44.1%	-5.7
Water Genbu	3.1%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	37.7%	-19.7
Water Tera Mage	3.1%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Allies	3.1%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	66.2%	+25.9
Wind Arcane	3.1%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Astra Cleric	3.1%	1	0-0-1	50.0%	50.0%	55.5%	+8.7
Wind Crux Lorraine	3.1%	2	0-2-0	0.0%	33.3%	34.7%	-14.7
Wind Lorraine	3.1%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	49.9%	-0.1
Wind Wakeup Combo	3.1%	0	—	—	—	—	—

Decklists · 7 from this event

The 7 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Flame-Rune Swordsman, Forgelight Blade, Intensified Pyre. Losers more often ran: Expose Darkness, Tariff Ring, Fiery Interference.

↑ Played more by winners

Flame-Rune Swordsman

Winning decks ran 3.3 copies on average, losing decks 1.0.

Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.